How to choose a target export market: 5 steps with Trade Map

Market first, then buyer

Many companies start exporting by emailing every foreign company they can find. But in a country without a large and growing market for your product, even the best offer goes unanswered. Market selection comes before the buyer search: first find where your product is really bought, then who buys it there.

This guide shows how to find candidate countries with Trade Map, compare them and narrow them down to a shortlist of 3–5 countries.

What is Trade Map?

Trade Map is the trade statistics database of the International Trade Centre (ITC), the joint agency of the United Nations and the World Trade Organization. It shows countries’ imports and exports by product, yearly and, for some countries, monthly or quarterly.

Access is free for users in developing countries and, for now, in European Union member countries; users elsewhere can subscribe for full access. You create an account at trademap.org.

Step 1: Confirm your product code

Trade Map is searched by the 6-digit HS code. With a wrong code, the whole analysis looks at the wrong product. If you are not sure of your code, read what is an HS code first. If your product falls under several codes, study each one separately.

Step 2: Who imports it worldwide?

Enter the product code, leave the country empty and choose Imports. The list shows every importing country, ranked by import value. Switch the view to Trade Indicators and look at three columns for each country:

• Import value: The size of the market. Start your candidate list with the top 20–30 countries.
• Annual growth over 5 years: Is the market growing or shrinking? A large but shrinking market can be harder than a medium one growing fast.
• Share in world imports: The country’s weight for this product worldwide.

Step 3: Where is your country strong, and where absent?

Now choose your own country and Exports for the same code. The list shows where your country sells this product and how much. The chart called Prospects for market diversification shows growing importers and your country’s share in each on one screen.

• Markets where your country’s share is high: Buyers know products from your country, so entry is easier, but your competitors are your fellow exporters.
• Large markets where your country’s share is low: The group with the most opportunity. Find out in step 4 why the share is low: duties, distance, regulations or price.

Step 4: See competitors and prices

For each candidate, choose that country and Imports; you get the list of countries supplying it. This list tells you three things:

• Competing countries and their shares: Who dominates the market? China, Germany or neighbouring countries?
• Unit value: Import value divided by quantity: the average price level of the product arriving in that country. Compare competitors’ unit values with your own price.
• Import duty: The Trade Indicators view shows an estimated average duty for your country. For exact rates, use ITC’s Market Access Map (macmap.org) or the target country’s official tariff.

Step 5: Score and shortlist

To compare candidates on the same criteria, give each criterion a score from 1 to 5, multiply by the weight and add up. The 3–5 countries with the highest totals are your shortlist. These are the weights we use in our market research reports:

Criterion	Weight
Import volume of the product	20%
Import growth over the last 5 years	15%
Your country’s share and trend in that market	15%
Regulations and document requirements	15%
Import duties and free trade advantages	10%
Market depth at your price level	10%
Logistics distance and cost	10%
Intensity of competition	5%

Trade Map does not show regulations and document requirements; check for each shortlisted country, in its official sources, which documents, labels or registrations your product needs. For logistics costs, ask your forwarder for a quote.

Frequently asked questions